Since Drewry's earlier analysis of container trade (CTS) improved its assessment between Asia and South Africa for the first part of the year, the statistical company changed its forecast for the second quarter. Instead of a 13% decrease in volumes to the southeast, it is registering a marginal growth of 0.4% for the same period, which represents 22,400 TEU over the original numbers.
In addition, growth has improved markedly in recent weeks. According to figures handled by Drewry, shipments to the south increased by 8% in the second quarter, the fastest rate since 2013. Inbound flows grew as importers took advantage of a partial recovery of the rand to replenish. After six months, the headhaul southbound market rose 4.3%, posting the first significant annual gain since 2013. Trade saw a lower recovery of 0.6% in 2015.
Due to the strengthening of the market companies, capacity is being added to the Southbound trade to the south, in addition to the shipping companies are adding more schedules.
The strength of the recent recovery in demand contributed to a recovery in the use of ships and freight. Southbound load factors were in the 70s in May and June and should be even higher in the second half of the year, traditionally stronger, even with additional capacity. Drewry's Container Freight Rate Insight reported that spot rates from Shanghai to Durban reached a seven-year high of 3,090 euros per TEU in July.
Freight rates should continue their rise in this growing trade in the coming months, as the new capacity will be backed by higher volumes..